CROWDGAP SIGNAL 10 · PUBLIC FORECAST LEDGER

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RECORD 001 · OPEN · IMMUTABLE

Will BatchV1_1 be enabled on XRPL Mainnet by 30 September 2026 at 23:59 UTC?

32%
CRYPTO · XRPL GOVERNANCELOW CONFIDENCE

CrowdGap assigns a 32% probability. The corrected amendment shipped in xrpld 3.3.0, but the latest validated-ledger view showed no amendment in the mandatory 14-day activation countdown. Activation by the deadline therefore requires validator support to rise above 80% by mid-September and remain there without interruption.

Recorded
21 Aug 2026, 16:39 UTC
Deadline
30 Sept 2026, 23:59 UTC
Outcome
Unresolved
Brier score
Pending
FROZEN EVIDENCE
  1. 01
    XRPL 3.3.0 release notes ↗

    Version 3.3.0 shipped on 6 August 2026 with BatchV1_1 and asked server operators to upgrade.

    supports yes
  2. 02
    XRPL amendments process ↗

    An amendment needs greater than 80% trusted-validator support for two consecutive weeks before activation.

    supports no
  3. 03
    XRPL Mainnet amendment dashboard ↗

    The public validated-ledger view fetched on 21 August 2026 listed Batch as supported but not enabled and showed zero amendments in the 14-day countdown.

    supports no
  4. 04
    Batch vulnerability disclosure ↗

    The original Batch amendment was stopped before Mainnet activation after a critical authorization flaw; BatchV1_1 is the corrected replacement.

    supports no
SHA-256 AUDIT DIGEST3a78556f912e363ad18c3cad71ac2b6fa45e4ae909fde9de3c12e878bb782a2b

The probability, evidence, assumptions, counter-signals and resolution rule were committed before the outcome. Distribution cannot rewrite this historical record.

SIGNAL 10 · FIVE LIVE FACTS + FIVE BOUNDED FORMATS

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02LIVE SOURCE FACT
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03LIVE SOURCE FACT
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04LIVE SOURCE FACT
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05LIVE SOURCE FACT
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06QUESTION FORMAT
MACRO · POLICY

Will the named central bank change its policy rate at the next scheduled meeting?

Research would testInflation, labor data, official guidance, voting signals, and financial conditions.

ResolutionThe central bank's official policy statement.

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07QUESTION FORMAT
MACRO · INFLATION

Will the named inflation measure print above or below a specified threshold?

Research would testRecent components, energy, shelter, base effects, surveys, and revision risk.

ResolutionThe national statistics authority's official release.

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08QUESTION FORMAT
EQUITIES · EARNINGS

Will the named public company report revenue above a specified threshold?

Research would testCompany guidance, segment trends, industry data, currency effects, and known risks.

ResolutionThe company filing or official investor-relations release.

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09QUESTION FORMAT
FINANCE · M&A

Will the announced acquisition receive final regulatory clearance by its deadline?

Research would testReview stage, remedies, jurisdictional approvals, litigation, and termination conditions.

ResolutionThe regulator's decision and the companies' public filings.

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10QUESTION FORMAT
FINANCE · ETF

Will the regulator approve the named exchange-traded fund application by its deadline?

Research would testProcedural stage, amendments, precedent, public filings, and delay pathways.

ResolutionThe regulator's public order or filing docket.

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NO BORROWED ODDSLive facts and question formats are not CrowdGap probabilities, betting picks, investment advice, or trading signals. A real forecast requires separate human authorization and public-evidence research.

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