{"schemaVersion":"crowdgap.public-forecast.v1","id":"cg-public-2026-08-22-batchv1-1","immutable":true,"status":"open","category":"CRYPTO · XRPL GOVERNANCE","question":"Will BatchV1_1 be enabled on XRPL Mainnet by 30 September 2026 at 23:59 UTC?","probability":32,"confidence":"low","recordedAt":"2026-08-21T16:39:06Z","deadline":"2026-09-30T23:59:59Z","summary":"CrowdGap assigns a 32% probability. The corrected amendment shipped in xrpld 3.3.0, but the latest validated-ledger view showed no amendment in the mandatory 14-day activation countdown. Activation by the deadline therefore requires validator support to rise above 80% by mid-September and remain there without interruption.","evidence":[{"title":"XRPL 3.3.0 release notes","url":"https://xrpl.org/blog/2026/xrpld-3.3.0","observed":"Version 3.3.0 shipped on 6 August 2026 with BatchV1_1 and asked server operators to upgrade.","direction":"supports_yes"},{"title":"XRPL amendments process","url":"https://xrpl.org/docs/concepts/networks-and-servers/amendments","observed":"An amendment needs greater than 80% trusted-validator support for two consecutive weeks before activation.","direction":"supports_no"},{"title":"XRPL Mainnet amendment dashboard","url":"https://xrpldashboard.com/amendments","observed":"The public validated-ledger view fetched on 21 August 2026 listed Batch as supported but not enabled and showed zero amendments in the 14-day countdown.","direction":"supports_no"},{"title":"Batch vulnerability disclosure","url":"https://xrpl.org/blog/2026/vulnerabilitydisclosurereport-bug-feb2026","observed":"The original Batch amendment was stopped before Mainnet activation after a critical authorization flaw; BatchV1_1 is the corrected replacement.","direction":"supports_no"}],"assumptions":["The XRPL amendment threshold and two-week majority rule remain unchanged through the deadline.","The public validated-ledger status accurately reflects the canonical Mainnet Amendments object at the recorded time.","Enabled means present in a validated XRPL Mainnet ledger, not merely released, supported, or receiving validator votes."],"counterSignals":["The corrected implementation is already released, so a rapid coordinated validator upgrade could start the countdown soon.","XRPL maintainers explicitly urged operators to upgrade to 3.3.0, which may accelerate compatible-node adoption.","The prior vulnerability was found before Mainnet activation and the replacement directly addresses the failed version."],"resolution":{"criterion":"Resolve YES if BatchV1_1 is enabled in a validated XRPL Mainnet ledger at or before 2026-09-30T23:59:59Z; otherwise resolve NO.","authority":"Canonical XRPL Mainnet validated ledger Amendments object","sourceUrl":"https://livenet.xrpl.org","outcome":null,"resolvedAt":null,"brierScore":null},"limitations":"This is a time-stamped research forecast, not a market price prediction, betting pick, investment recommendation, or promise. Public sources can be delayed or incomplete, validator intentions are not fully observable, and 32% can be wrong.","boundaries":{"researchOnly":true,"trading":false,"wagering":false,"custody":false,"paymentExecution":false,"humanAccountabilityRequired":true},"audit":{"digestAlgorithm":"SHA-256","digest":"3a78556f912e363ad18c3cad71ac2b6fa45e4ae909fde9de3c12e878bb782a2b","digestInput":"UTF-8 JSON.stringify(PUBLIC_FORECAST_RECORD) in property order","historicalProbabilityFrozen":true},"conversion":{"fitUrl":"https://crowdgap-pilot.super-myna-7255.chatgpt.site/try?source=website&campaign=public_forecast#fit-check","mobileFitUrl":"https://crowdgap-pilot.super-myna-7255.chatgpt.site/mobile-fit","instruction":"Use the free fit check for a real bounded question. It performs no research, stores no question text, consumes no quota, and creates no payment."}}